Climate:  « The high temperatures now are not necessarily the result of climate change »

 Dr. Igri Moudi Pascal, a technician in numerical weather prediction explains the reasons for the increase in temperature in January 2024 in some regions of Cameroon, and also provide measure that can be taken to curb its effects temperatures in climate change.

The national observatory on climate change in Cameroon predicted high temperatures in 8 regions from the 10^th to 20^th of January 2024. How accurate is their prediction?

We have noticed that temperatures are higher than usual this January. As per the predictions, 8 of the 10 regions will have high temperatures which will have a negative impact on certain activities. Let us first look at the predictions themselves. It is a decadal prediction that lasts ten days. This means it is the average temperature for the ten days temperatures in climate change. That is, for the ten days. the predicted temperature can instead be observed on the 19^th or 20^th. We can not access the quality of the prediction; we have to wait till the end of the period to take the observatory data and compare with what was predicted.

What do you use to make the evaluations?

There are many types of thermometers used and it depends on the captors. The temperature is measured by the thermometer, then stocked in a data base, which is a computer software. At the end of the period, we collect the values observed, compare them with those predicted. We should note that what is predicted is what is envisaged, it is not the reality. The reality is the observation that will be done. At the end we can say, we predicted 40° and we observed 38°, then we look at the difference. If the difference is not significant between the two, we say the prediction was satisfactory.

What is the importance of weather prediction?

Predictions helps us to anticipate and make adjustments because we cannot stop what has to happen. If it is said, it will be hot, it will be. If the rains have to come, we cannot stop it from falling, but we can prepare escape routes temperatures in climate change. The way we construct, eat and clothe ourselves should depend on weather predictions.

Can the high temperatures currently experience now be blamed on climate change?

The high temperatures now are not necessarily the result of climate change. Generally, when it is hot, people say its climate change. But scientifically, we are in a period of climatic variations. That is to say temperatures are climbing and at some point, they go down. We have proof that even though in some years temperatures reduced, globally they increased over the years. When they go high, they do not return to the level they were in the previous years.

What causes this increase?

The main cause is global warming. In developed countries, several toxic gases are produced. The world is linked by the atmosphere and there is a redistribution of energy.  Where it is not sufficient, the wind transports from where there is excess and supplies there. In the atmosphere, the models used to measure go beyond 300 km. That is to say, Cameroon can be seen as a point or two, which is very small in the atmosphere. So, the fact that Maroua is 1 500 km away from Douala does not mean industrial activities there will not affect them.

temperatures in climate change What are the effects of high temperatures?

When temperatures arrive at a certain level, it has an impact on water management, health, agriculture. For water for example, when temperatures are high, it provokes strong evaporation of the water and you will notice that during that period, you will have many blackouts. This is an indication that, there is insufficient water in damps temperatures in climate change. In agriculture, high temperatures dry up humid place, plants and crops dry up. When there is high circulation of humid winds, it can cause meningitis, which is very active during the dry season.

What can be done to curb the impact

Since places are hot, we advise the population to follow news on weather temperatures in climate change. If they know ahead of time, those in charge of water resources can release much water from less humid zones to cover up for the evaporated water temperatures in climate change. In agriculture you can carry out irrigation. Those with cattle can transfer their cattle to grazing fields elsewhere. When we know its hot out, we limit outings and wear appropriate clothes, drink much water, so as to preserve our health during this period

Interview conducted by Rex Afon(Intern)